When ethylene oxide price are being compared all around the world, numerous quantifiable factors such as raw material price, geographical demand and supply fundamentals, government guidelines, and logistical tariffs come into consideration. As an example, March 2025 Northeast Asian CFR prices for ethylene stand at $890-910 / ton and equate to roughly 60%-70% of the raw material cost of primary usage to produce ethylene oxide. According to the industry production coefficient, 0.8 to 0.9 tons of ethylene is consumed for each ton of ethylene oxide, and processing cost of superimposed oxidation reaction is US $200 to US $250 / ton. Theoretical cost of production of ethylene oxide in Northeast Asia is US $1157 to US $1,433 / ton. It is 18%-27% above the US Gulf of Mexico’s US $975-1125 / ton on shale gas raw material advantages.
On supply and demand, Asia’s ethylene supply shortage is expected to be 1.5 million tons/quarter due to intensive YNCC Yeosu 2# (800,000 tons/year) and Lotte Daesan (1.2 million tons/year) maintenance. Once the ethylene oxide is sold to the ethylene oxide market, Northeast Asian spot supply can fall by 12% to 15%. Pushed its price up 8.3% from the fourth quarter of 2024 to $1,350 / ton (CFR China). In Europe, ethylene oxide is valued at about 200 euros/ton higher than in Asia due to the energy cost being high, but downstream derivatives of ethylene oxide such as ethylene glycol have an operating rate of just 65 to 70 percent, 10 percentage points lower than in Asia, and shy demand holds the actual price increase to 3 to 5 percent.
Policy is as important as logistics. Following China’s “two sessions,” the policy of tax reductions for the chemical industry reduced the value-added tax on imported ethylene oxide to 9% from 13%, and imposed a 6.5% tariff on ethylene oxide imports. The CIF price is 5.8% to 7.2% lower than that of domestic ethylene oxide products. Shipping rates from Asia to the United States increased to $85-110 / ton (40-foot container) due to the drought at the Panama Canal, 35% more than in the corresponding period of 2024, further reducing cross-regional arbitrage space. In addition, the exchange rate volatility of the RMB (0.86 standard deviation in Q1 2025) has widened the window for Chinese purchasers to pay varying costs to purchase ethylene oxide from North America to ±4.2%, necessitating hedging risk through the use of forward foreign exchange contracts.
Overall, the global differentiation in the prices of ethylene oxide is influenced by a combination of raw material price differentials, maintenance cycles in plants, policy dividends, and transportation costs. It is recommended that companies adopt a dynamic monitoring model, tracking such key indicators as Northeast Asian cracker operating rates (currently 82%), United States ethane prices (currently $12.3 / mmBTU) and European downstream derivatives inventory cycles (average 45 days) to maximize cross-market buying strategies precisely.